[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 16 September 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (16 SEPTEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
16 Sep    66    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    2229UT  Confirmed   lower  West Pacific 

Flare remained in progress at time of issue.

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values first half UT day.
      Spread and absorption observed second half UT day.


PCA Event : No event. Weak event possible next 24 hours.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57
2. FORECAST (17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
17 Sep    40    Fair             depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values 
18 Sep    40    Fair             depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values     
19 Sep    40    Normal-Fair      depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 63 was issued on 16 September 
and is current for interval 18-19 September. Degraded conditions have
arrived earlier than expected. Mild to moderately depressed MUFS 
and degraded conditions for southern Aus/NZ region expected next 
few days. Northern region MUFs expected to remain mostly near 
predicted monthly values. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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