[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 28 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 29 10:15:15 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (28 OCTOBER)
Date T index Conditions
28 Oct 88 Fair-normal
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X17/4B 1110UT probable all European
MUFs:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 28 10 2003 1215UT and is in progress
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
2. FORECAST (29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER)
Date T index Conditions MUFs
29 Oct 70 Fair-poor enhanced 15 to 20%/depressed
20 to 40% late in UT day.
30 Oct 10 Poor-fair depressed 15 to 40%/near predicted
monthly values
31 Oct 30 Fair-normal depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted
monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 79 was issued on 28 October
and is current for interval 29-31 October (SWFs) . Expected ionospheric
depression for this morning has not eventuated due to weaker
than expected shock induced geomagnetic activity. However, a
strong degradation and depression is expected late 29 and 30
Oct due to anticpated geomagnetic activity from very large (X17)
flare/CME overnight. Frequent shortwave flares and fadeouts can be
expected on daylight HF circuits.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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