[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 27 October 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 28 10:12:20 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (27 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
27 Oct    70    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M7.6/2N 26/2140UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
M2.7/2F    0833UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
M5.0/SF    0927UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
M6.7/SF    1243UT  probable   lower  European

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption until 15UT then, near predicted monthly 
      values over the UT day. Some spread F.


PCA Event : Began at 1825UT 26/10, Ended at 1950UT 27/10
 

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55
2. FORECAST (28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
28 Oct    55    Normal-Poor       near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 20% 
29 Oct    20    Poor-Fair        depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values     
30 Oct    35    Fair-Normal      depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 77 was issued on 26 October 
and is current for interval 28-29 October. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values for most of the local day. 
Depressed conditions expected from late UT 28 Oct and 29 Oct 
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity from recent mass ejections. 
Frequent flares and fadeouts can be expected on daylight HF circuits. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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