[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 26 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (26 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
26 Oct    76    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.3    0654UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian
  M1.0    1421UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  X1.3    1819UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M7.2    2139UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
				    North American

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% briefly after local dawn.
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values,
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed,
      later in UT day.


PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 26 10 2003 1825UT and is in progress.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55
2. FORECAST (27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
27 Oct    70    Normal           near predicted monthly values 
28 Oct    50    Normal-Poor      near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 20% late in UT day. 
29 Oct    20    Poor-Fair        depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 76 was issued on 25 October 
and is current for interval 26-28 October (SWFs) . MUFs are expected 
to be near to 10% above normal today. However, frequent flares 
and fadeouts can be expected on daylight HF circuits. Depressed 
and degraded conditions expected from late 28 Oct and 29 Oct 
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity from recent mass ejections. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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