[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 25 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (25 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
25 Oct    28    Poor-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0452UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.7    0554UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.5    1037UT  possible   lower  European

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Increased absorption nad spread F observed early UT day.
      Blanketing sporadic E observed second half UT day.


PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55
2. FORECAST (26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
26 Oct    45    Fair-Normal      depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values 
27 Oct    50    Normal           near predicted monthly values     
28 Oct    55    Normal           near predicted monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 76 was issued on 25 October 
and is current for interval 26-28 October (SWFs) . Strong depression 
in reginal ionosphere observed yesterday. Second mass ejection 
is now not expected to arrive, due to lack of precursor signature 
in satellite data over last 24 hours. Improving HF conditions 
expected now next few days. Solar regions that have produced 
recent flares and mass ejections remain flare capable and frequent 
flares and shortwave fadeouts are expected today. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.