[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 23 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (23 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
23 Oct    65    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.4    0241UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.2    0708UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  X5.4    0835UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian
  M1.0    1622UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  X1.1    2004UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.3    2232UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


PCA Event : No event. 10MeV proton flux enhancement.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55
2. FORECAST (24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
24 Oct    70    Normal-Poor      near monthly values/depressed 10-30%
25 Oct    10    Poor-Fair        20 to 40% below predicted monthly 
                                 values     
26 Oct    25    Fair-Poor        10 to 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on 22 October 
and is current for interval 24-25 October. MUFs expected to initially 
be near to slightly above predicted monthly values. A coronal 
mass ejection is expected to arrive first half of the UT day 
on 24 Oct with storm conditions anticipated to follow. Another 
mass ejection is expected on 26 Oct. Strongly depressed and degraded 
conditions are expected next few days in Aus/NZ region if strong 
geomagnetic activity follows mass ejection arrival. Frequent 
flares and shortwave fadeouts are expected today. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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