[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 22 October 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 23 09:24:18 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (22 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
22 Oct    58    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.4 21/2336UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.0    0229UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.7    0352UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.4    1511UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.2    1601UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M9.9    2007UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F and absorption observed.


PCA Event : No event. 
	    Caution tanspolar HF comms:Solar regions proton 
				       flare capable.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55
2. FORECAST (23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
23 Oct    45    Fair-Normal      depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values 
24 Oct    50    Normal-Fair/Poor near predicted monthly values     
25 Oct    20    Poor-Fair        depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on 22 October 
and is current for interval 23-25 October (SWFs) . Lower than 
normal MUFs expected first half of UT day today for southern 
region Aus/NZ. Northern region MUFs expected to remain near predicted 
monthly values. Disturbed and depressed conditions expected to 
begin late 24 Oct and a general MUF depression is expected 25 
Oct, in association with anticpated geomagnetic activity from 
expected coronal mass ejection impact. Frequent shortwave fadeouts 
likely on daylight HF circuits, due to large active solar region on 
solar disk, and another very active solar region rotating onto 
solar disk. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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