[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 22 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 23 09:24:18 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (22 OCTOBER)
Date T index Conditions
22 Oct 58 Fair-normal
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 21/2336UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 0229UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.7 0352UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 1511UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.2 1601UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M9.9 2007UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
MUFs:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Spread F and absorption observed.
PCA Event : No event.
Caution tanspolar HF comms:Solar regions proton
flare capable.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
2. FORECAST (23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER)
Date T index Conditions MUFs
23 Oct 45 Fair-Normal depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted
monthly values
24 Oct 50 Normal-Fair/Poor near predicted monthly values
25 Oct 20 Poor-Fair depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted
monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on 22 October
and is current for interval 23-25 October (SWFs) . Lower than
normal MUFs expected first half of UT day today for southern
region Aus/NZ. Northern region MUFs expected to remain near predicted
monthly values. Disturbed and depressed conditions expected to
begin late 24 Oct and a general MUF depression is expected 25
Oct, in association with anticpated geomagnetic activity from
expected coronal mass ejection impact. Frequent shortwave fadeouts
likely on daylight HF circuits, due to large active solar region on
solar disk, and another very active solar region rotating onto
solar disk.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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