[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 21 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (21 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
21 Oct    62    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0827UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.2    2156UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Disturbed conditions. Macquire Island
      MUFs enhanced 30% early in UT day. Depressed
      30% after 20UT. Antartic mainland region 
      MUFs depressed 15-20% with spread F observed,
      and increased absorption observed.


PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55
2. FORECAST (22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
22 Oct    30    Fair             depressed 10 to 20% (souther Aus/NZ region)
22 Oct    60    Fair-Normal      near predicted monthly values (Northern Aus)
23 Oct    40    Fair             depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values     
24 Oct    45    Fair-normal      depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 20-22 October (SWFs) . Depressed 
conditions expected for southern Aus/NZ region today. Northern 
region MUFs likely to remain near predicted monthly values (T=60). 
Shortwave fadeouts likely on daylight HF circuits, due to large 
active solar region on solar disk, and another probable active 
solar region rotating onto solar disk (presumed origin of 21UT M1 flare). 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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