[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 19 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (19 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
19 Oct    44    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/1N    1629UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic
 M1/--    0626UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-20%.  Absorption and spread F 
      observed.


PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55
2. FORECAST (20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
20 Oct    45    Normal           depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values 
21 Oct    40    Normal-Fair      depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values     
22 Oct    40    Normal-Fair      depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 20-22 October (SWFs) . Lower than 
normal MUFs are likely for southern Aus/NZ region next few days, 
in association with coronal hole wind stream induced activity. 
There is an increasing chance for short wave fadeouts due to 
magnetically complex solar region in north-east solar quadrant. 
Northern Aus region MUfs expected to be near normal and communicators 
within this region should use a T of 60. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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