[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 06 November 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (06 NOVEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
06 Nov    87    Normal         

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 04 11 2003 2225UT and is in progress
            (just above event threshold)

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  52
2. FORECAST (07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
07 Nov    70    Normal           depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values 
08 Nov    70    Normal           near predicted monthly values     
09 Nov    65    Normal           near predicted monthly values    
COMMENT: Glancing blow from recent CME has arrived. Effects minimal. 
Some southern region sites may experience brief depressions after 
local dawn this morning. Active solar regions have departed solar 
disk shortwave fadeouts no longer expected. Normal communications 
expected next few days. Next mild to moderately degraded interval 
for southern Aus/NZ after 10 Nov due to anticipated activity 
from a solar coronal hole. MUFs may trend lower to more median 
levels, in coming days, due to reduced solar flux levels due 
to a quiet Sun. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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