[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 18 March 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (18 MARCH) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
18 Mar    86    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/1B    1208UT  probable   all    European

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


PCA Event : No event. However, proton flux mildly elevated

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82
2. FORECAST (19 MARCH - 21 MARCH)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
19 Mar    70    Fair             depressed 10 to 25%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values 
20 Mar    70    Fair             depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values     
21 Mar    70    Normal           depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 18 March 
and is current for interval 18-19 March (SWFs) . Genreally lower 
than normal MUFs expected for southern Aus and NZ region after 
local dawn over next few days. These conditions are expected 
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream induced geomagnetic 
activity, with the possibility of superimposed weak mass ejection 
signatures. Northern Aus region MUFs should be more robust and 
communicators within this region should use a T index of around 
120. Shortwave fadeouts possible due to active solar region.

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