[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 17 March 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (17 MARCH) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
17 Mar    77    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/1B    1905UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82
2. FORECAST (18 MARCH - 20 MARCH)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
18 Mar   120    Normal           near to 15% above monthly values.
18 Mar    90    Normal-Fair      near predicted monthly values 
19 Mar    80    Normal-Fair      near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 15%     
20 Mar    70    Normal-Fair      depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: Coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity again observed 
overnight. Mild depressions observed after local dawn for southern 
region Australia. Northern region MUFs are not expected to be 
affected, and communicators in northern Aus region should use 
a T index of 120. A futher degradation in conditions is expected 
19-20 Mar, due to second arm of coronal hole. The flare X1 event 
appeared not to be associated with a mass ejection so based on
data available no disturbance is expected from this 
event.

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