[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 18 June 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (18 JUNE) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
18 Jun    74    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M6.8 17/2255UT  probable   lower  West Pacific

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 18 06 2003 2050UT and is in progress

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68
2. FORECAST (19 JUNE - 21 JUNE)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
19 Jun    20    Poor-Fair        depressed 10 to 20% (southern Aus/NZ region)
19 Jun    65    Normal-Fair      near predicted monthly values (northern Aus region)
20 Jun    55    Fair             depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values     
21 Jun    55    Normal-Fair      depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 18 June 
and is current for interval 19-21 June (SWFs) . Southern region
MUFs depressed after local dawn this morning. Southern Aus/NZ 
MUFs expected to be 15-20% depressed after local dawn over the 
next few days. Northern Aus region MUFs expected to remain near 
predicted monthly values. SWFs are expected over the next few 
days. Transpolar HF circuits may be experiencing increased 
absorption due to proton event(PCA).

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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