[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 01 June 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (01 JUNE) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
01 Jun    57    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    0314UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.0    0712UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.0    1250UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.6    1652UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.1    2105UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Initially depressed 15-20% then recovering as day
      progressed,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F and some absorption observed.


PCA Event : Began at 0505UT 31/05, Ended at 1505UT 31/05
 

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  67
2. FORECAST (02 JUNE - 04 JUNE)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
02 Jun    70    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values 
03 Jun    50    Fair             near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 20%     
04 Jun    45    Fair             depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: Ionospheric MUF support level and comms conditions expected 
to be initially normal today. However, a trend of deteriorating 
conditions is expected late 02 Jun/03 Jun for mid to high latitudes 
(southern Aus/NZ region). Northern Aus region MUFs expected to 
remain mostly near monthly values. The recent X class flare producing
solar region is about to depart the solar disk. However, a new active 
solar region has appeared on the north-east limb of the Sun and 
further flare activity looks llikely in coming days. This new region 
conributed 3 of the above low level M class flares.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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