[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 17 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (17 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
17 Feb   108    Fair-normal    

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values with isolated
      periods of disturbance.


PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88
2. FORECAST (18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
18 Feb   100    Fair-normal      Enhanced 10-20% Equatorial/N. 
                                 Aus region. Depressed 15-25% 
                                 during local daylight hours 
                                 S. Aus/NZ region. Depressed 
                                 5-10% at times Antarctic region. 
19 Feb   100    Fair-normal      Enhanced 10-20% Equatorial/N. 
                                 Aus region. Near predicted monthly 
                                 values S. Aus/NZ/Antarctic region.     
20 Feb   120    Normal           Near predicted monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 17 February 
and is current for interval 17-18 February. Depressions of 20-30% 
observed yesterday and expected today at mid-latitudes in E.Aus/NZ 
region. Extended periods of spread-F conditions and local disturbance 
at high latitudes in association with coronal-hole induced geomagnetic 
disturbance. 

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