[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 14 November 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 15 10:13:30 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 NOVEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
14 Nov   162    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0017UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-45%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91
2. FORECAST (15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
15 Nov   140    Normal           10 to 20% above predicted monthly 
                                 values 
16 Nov   115    Normal-Fair      near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 15%     
17 Nov   100    Fair-Normal      depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 67 was issued on 14 November 
and is current for interval 14-15 November (SWFs) . Generally 
good HF conditions expected today. Coronal hole induced geomagnetic 
activity is expected to cause a degradation in HF conditions 
on 16 Nov, for mid to high latitudes.  In additions, a weak shock 
may arrive from the M1/CME late 15 Nov early 16 Nov.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 



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