[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 16 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (16 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
16 May   129    Normal         

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113
2. FORECAST (17 MAY - 19 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
17 May   130    Normal           10 to 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values 
18 May   130    Normal-fair      10 to 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values     
19 May   110    Normal-fair      Depressed 5-15% after local 
                                 dawn, then returning enhanced 
                                 5-15%.    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 16 May 
and is current for interval 18-19 May. Degraded HF conditions 
expected southern Aus/NZ region late 18-19 May, local night hours, 
due to recent mass ejection. Strong MUF depressions in the Aus/NZ 
region are not expected due to seasonal factors and low magnitude 
of solar event. Brief depressions may be experienced after local 
dawn on 19 May. In addition there is an increasing likelyhood of 
fadeout activity over coming days, due to the possibility
of a new active solar region rotating onto solar the disk.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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