[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 12 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (12 JANUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
12 Jan   147    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    0322UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
 M1/1N    1519UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
 M1/SF    1929UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
 M3/--    1843UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109
2. FORECAST (13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
13 Jan   120    Fair-Normal      depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values 
14 Jan   150    Normal           10 to 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values     
15 Jan   160    Normal           10 to 20% above predicted monthly 
                                 values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 12 January 
and is current for interval 13-15 January (SWFs) . Brief depressions 
may be experienced after local dawn this morning southern region 
Aus/NZ following mild overnight geomagnetic activity. Northern 
region MUFs near to above normal. HF conditions are expected 
to gradually improve over coming days, with a likely return to 
enhanced MUFs on day 2, as coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity 
declines. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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