[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 21 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (21 DECEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
21 Dec   122    Normal-fair    

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90
2. FORECAST (22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
22 Dec   120    Normal-poor      Initially enhanced 10-20% then 
                                 depressed 15% late in UT day. 
23 Dec    50    Poor-fair        depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values     
24 Dec    80    Normal-fair      depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 79 was issued on 21 December 
and is current for interval 22-23 December. Isolated shortwave 
fadeout activity expected. Expected depressed MUFs after local 
dawn did not eventuate as geomagnetic activity switched off when 
Bz swung northward. Depressed/degraded conditions are likely 
late 22-23 Dec following anticipated coronal mass ejection geomagnetic 
activity. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060