[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 19 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (19 DECEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
19 Dec   153    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.8    2150UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90
2. FORECAST (20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
20 Dec    80    Normal-fair      depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values 
21 Dec    80    Normal           depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values     
22 Dec   120    Fair             Near predicted monthly values    
COMMENT: Isolated shortwave fadeout activity expected. Depressed 
MUFs expected southern region after local dawn today and possibly 
next day. A mass ejection is likely to have occurred on the Sun 
with the M2.8 flare. This is expected on 22 Dec. As such 
depressed/degraded ionospheric conditions are likely alte 22-23 Dec. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060