[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 17 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (17 DECEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
17 Dec   156    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3 16/2337UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90
2. FORECAST (18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
18 Dec   155    Normal-fair      Initially enahnced 10-20% then 
                                 depressed 15% late in UT day. 
19 Dec    80    Fair             depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values     
20 Dec   100    Fair-normal      Near predicted monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 77 was issued on 15 December 
and is current for interval 18-19 December. Isolated shortwave 
fadeout activity expected. The Earth has yet to entre coronal 
hole wind stream so conditions expected to be initially good 
today. Degraded conditions expected around late 18 Dec and 19 
Dec due to anticapated coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity. 

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