[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 22 August 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (22 AUGUST) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
22 Aug   150    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M5/2B    0157UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
 M1/1N    1802UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 22 08 2002 0445UT and is in progress

Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102
2. FORECAST (23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
23 Aug   150    Normal           about 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values 
24 Aug   130    Normal           Enhanced 15% to near predicted 
                                 monthly values.     
25 Aug    90    Normal-fair      depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on 22 August 
and is current for interval 22-24 August (SWFs) . HF conditions 
have been degraded at high latitudes for 22 August due to a PCA 
event. HF conditions are expected to be mildly degraded for 24/25 
August at high latitudes and slightly degraded at mid-latitudes 
for 25 August due to anticipated increased geomagnetic activity. 
SWF's possible. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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