[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 18 August 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 19 09:17:14 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (18 AUGUST) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
18 Aug   148    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.5    1005UT  possible   lower  European
  M2.1    1439UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M2.4    2126UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25-45% during local day,
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Some spread and absorption observed.


PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102
2. FORECAST (19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
19 Aug   140    Normal-Fair      about 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values 
20 Aug   140    Normal           about 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values     
21 Aug   140    Normal-Fair      about 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 40 was issued on 18 August 
and is current for interval 19-21 August (SWFs) . Strong degradation 
did not eventuate post CME shock arrival. Moderate degradation 
possible local night hours day 1 and 3 of forecast period. Fadeouts 
can be expected on daylight HF circuits. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 



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