[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 16 August 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 17 08:54:55 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (16 AUGUST)
Date T index Conditions
16 Aug 141 Normal
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 15/2333UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.6 0612UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M5.3 1235UT possible lower European
M1.3 2212UT possible lower West Pacific
MUFs:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Some absorption observed late in UT day.
PCA Event : No event. However, proton enhancement in progress.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102
2. FORECAST (17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST)
Date T index Conditions MUFs
17 Aug 120 Normal about 5% above predicted monthly
values
18 Aug 100 Poor Initially enhanced 5%, then
depressed 15-20%.
19 Aug 85 Normal-Fair depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted
monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 15 August
and is current for interval 16-18 August (SWFs) . Strongly degraded
conditions expected local night hours 18 Aug, southern Aus/NZ
region. MUF depression for southern hemisphere not expected to
be severe due to seasonal factors (winter). Fadeouts can be expected
on daylight HF circuits.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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