[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 04 November 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (04 NOVEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
04 Nov   189    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.1    1620UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Complete absorption observed from 18UT.
      PCA in progress from 1710UT (protons from X1 flare).


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109
2. FORECAST (05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
05 Nov   165    Normal-Fair      Initially 15-20% enhanced, chance 
                                 for mild depression late in 
                                 UT day for southern region Aus/NZ 
                                 only. 
06 Nov   100    Fair-Poor        Initially midly depressed (southern 
                                 region) to 15% enhanced (northern 
                                 region), strong depression expected 
                                 second half of UT day.     
07 Nov    80    Poor-Fair        30 to 50% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
COMMENT: Strongly depressed and degraded HF conditions are now 
expected from mid 06 Nov for all sites due to overnight X1 
flare/CME. A milder degradation for southern region Aus only 
may occur before this event due to an earlier much 
weaker/slower CME event. 

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