[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 15 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
15 May    91    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1N    0300UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117
2. FORECAST (16 MAY - 18 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
16 May   105    Normal           depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values 
17 May   115    Normal-Fair      near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 15%     
18 May   100    Fair-Normal      depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs observed yesterday, mostly during
local night hours. There is a chance for a mild degradation in HF 
conditions, during second half of UT day 17 May, high latitudes only,
due to a recent flare and possible mass ejection. Also, shortwave fadeouts 
may become more frequent in coming days due to the possible return 
of a previously active solar region. 

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