[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 09 April 01

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 10 09:22:44 EST 2001


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (09 APRIL) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
09 Apr   131    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M7/2B    1534UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 10 to 20% at the start of the UT day,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values afterwards,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120
2. FORECAST (10 APRIL - 12 APRIL)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
10 Apr   150    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
11 Apr   100    Poor             about 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values     
12 Apr   120    Normal-Fair      depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 9 April 
and is current for interval 11-12 April. Anticipated depression 
did not eventuate on 9 Apr as the 8 Apr shock was erroneously 
assigned to M5 flare/CME rather than the recent X5 flare/CME. 
Shortwave fadeouts expected on daylight HF circuits. Enhanced 
proton fluxes associated with M7.9 flare from region 9415 on 
9 Apr may affect high-latitude HF comms. Depressions are expected 
for the 11 and possibly 12 of Apr following the arrival of a 
shock associated with the M7.9 flare/CME observed at 1534UT on 
9 Apr. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 




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