[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 29 October 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z OCTOBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (29 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
29 Oct   134    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Begin   End    Freq.  Sectors
 M4/2B    0157UT  possible                  lower  E. Asia/Aust.

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 135
2. FORECAST (30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
30 Oct   140    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
31 Oct   130    Normal-fair      5 to 10% below predicted monthly 
                                 values     
01 Nov   140    Normal           Near predicted monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on 29 October 
and is current for interval 31 October to 1 November. Following 
a geomagnetic storm triggered by the arrival of two successive 
weak shocks and a lengthy period of strongly negative IMF Bz 
period, ionospheric conditions were depressed by 10 to 15% at 
mid to high latitudes on the 29 OCT. Further depressed conditions 
are expected for the 31 OCT to 1 NOV after the arrival of an 
anticipated shock on the 31 OCT. 


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