[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 26 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (26 NOVEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
26 Nov   148    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Begin   End    Freq.  Sectors
 X4/2B    1648UT  probable                  all    South American/
                                                   Atlantic
 M2/1F    0308UT  possible                  lower  E. Asia/Aust.

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% at the start of the UT day.
      Mask by PCA afterwards.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133
2. FORECAST (27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
27 Nov   110    Fair             about 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values 
28 Nov   100    Fair             about 30% below predicted monthly 
                                 values     
29 Nov   110    Fair             about 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 80 was issued on 24 November 
and is current for interval 26-28 November. Although several 
shocks associated with the flare and CMEs observed over the 23-25 
periods reached the Earth, ionospheric conditions stay at normal 
to enhanced levels on the 26 Nov as IMF Bz stayed positive after 
the shock arrivals. Depressed ionospheric conditions by 20% to 
30% are anticipated from the 27 Nov till 29 Nov after the expected 
arrival of several shocks associated with CMEs observed following 
further flares on the 25 and 26 Nov. 


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