From anonymous at fakedomain.ips Sun Jul 16 11:28:43 2000 From: anonymous at fakedomain.ips (anonymous) Date: Sun, 16 Jul 2000 01:28:43 +0000 Subject: Radio aurora Message-ID: Strong radio aurora today, 2000 July 15 in EM77bq, central KY. First signals observed just after 2000 Z. At this time, 0100 Z July 16 signals fewer and weaker. A southern aurora. Only one station near the US/Canadian border heard so far (in FN14, southern Ont). [Locations using the Maidenhead Locator system]. Few north of NJ & CT heard. Across southern MI to southern SD (EN13). West to CO (DN70 & DM78), south to southeast OK, south to mid-AL (EM62!!), east to NC/SC border (FM04). Most stations were contacted with beam to NW and as far around as 300 deg az. Most East Coast stations worked with beam in this direction. Often peaked very well there, and was primarily looking for stations in that area. But often stations on East Coast were much better at that heading than with beam to NE. Often a null to the north. Tried elevating beams - no good. Above about 15 deg el, signals would drop some. Best elevation 8-10 deg. Now (0120 Z), signals to the west are peaking better with beam to the NE, tho far below their strength earlier this evening. Twilight now, but don't expect to be able to see anything visually. 73, Shelby, W8WN From anonymous at fakedomain.ips Sun Jul 16 13:51:59 2000 From: anonymous at fakedomain.ips (anonymous) Date: Sat, 15 Jul 2000 23:51:59 EDT Subject: Radio aurora Message-ID: In a message dated 7/15/00 9:30:08 PM Eastern Daylight Time, Shelby Ennis/w8wn at fakedomain.ips << Strong radio aurora today, 2000 July 15 in EM77bq, central KY. First signals observed just after 2000 Z. At this time, 0100 Z July 16 signals fewer and weaker. Most stations were contacted with beam to NW and as far around as 300 deg az. Most East Coast stations worked with beam in this direction. Now (0120 Z), signals to the west are peaking better with beam to the NE, tho far below their strength earlier this evening. Twilight now, but don't expect to be able to see anything visually. 73, Shelby, W8WN >> Although an unusual (for July) cutoff low pressure system brough extensive cloud cover and showery/tropical rain to much of the northeast, there was an interval of about three hours -- from 8 to 11 p.m. EDT on July 15 -- when sky conditions over Levittown, New York were 60 to 90 percent clear. Despite the nearly full Moon, aurora was looked for, but was not seen. In the past, bright aurorae have been clearly seen from my location -- the most recent case being the deep red aurora of last April 6. Tonight . . . although the various web sites that provide the "latest" parameters for viewing auroral activity indicated K indecies of 9 with the aurora oval positioned down into my latitudes, I saw nothing to suggest that an aurora was in progress. I can only suspect that the activity dropped off sharply after 0000 hours UTC/8 p.m. EDT this evening. Shelby's report above pretty much confirms this. Perhaps this is only a temporary lull . . . but even if activity picks up again later tonight it will do me no good . . . for the clouds have returned! -- joe rao From anonymous at fakedomain.ips Sun Jul 16 05:49:55 2000 From: anonymous at fakedomain.ips (anonymous) Date: Sat, 15 Jul 2000 20:49:55 +0100 Subject: IPS Aurora Alert - 15 07 00 19 Message-ID: Hello again, thanks for all your informative efforts! >IPS would appreciate any feedback from people observing an >aurora giving details of location and time. Please email to >asfc at fakedomain.ips This latest one is worthy of note! So far I only have a radio, not visual, report to make since it is still daylight here. For several hours now, this afternoon ( I first noticed the activity at about 16:15utc but I think it had started earlier) and still continuing at 8:30pm local bst(19:30utc) (but not now quite so active as it was) there has been an exceptionally strong aurora enabling radio amateurs across northern Europe to communicate with strong signals via it. First picked up on 50MHz (usual) then also on 144MHz. >From anon at fakedomain.ips and the Baltic. Also (unusually) middle and south Europe, Switzerland and Austria were able to use it and some reports even from Italy (quite exceptional) I wonder what it is like "dahnunner" ! ?, I have not seen any reports from Australasia yet. Best regards, SW England - near Bristol. From anonymous at fakedomain.ips Sat Jul 15 16:59:48 2000 From: anonymous at fakedomain.ips (anonymous) Date: Sat, 15 Jul 2000 07:59:48 +0100 Subject: IPS Message-ID: Your webpage feedback form didn't autosend, so here's the actual message pasted into this e-mail:- Your alert mailing for Geomagnetic Storms and Aurora are very welcome, and probably the best in the world (you only mail the serious ones!). I run the Guildford Astronomical Society website and act as general Internet advisor to the AS. I forward your alerts to 16 other active members who have expressed an interest in receiving astronomical alerts (of various kinds). It's a good service that you offer, so I thought that you'd like to know that at least 17 people in UK much appreciate it! From anonymous at fakedomain.ips Sat Jul 15 21:23:28 2000 From: anonymous at fakedomain.ips (anonymous) Date: Sat, 15 Jul 2000 13:23:28 +0200 Subject: IPS Daily Report - 14 July 00 Message-ID: Regional Warning Centre schrieb: > SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT > ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JULY 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES > FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE > SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY > STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED ** > NOTE: MAJOR DISTURBANCE EXPECTED DUE TO X5 SOLAR FLARE. > ----------------------------------------------------------- > 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY > Activity 14 Jul: High > > Flares Max Fadeout Begin End Freq. Sectors > X5/3B 1024UT probable all European > M3/1N 1344UT possible lower European > > Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 204/155 > > GOES satellite data for 13 Jul > Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+07 > Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+05 > Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal) > X-ray background: C3.6 > Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. > > 1B. SOLAR FORECAST > 15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul > Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high > Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable > 10.7cm/SSN 200/152 195/147 195/147 > > COMMENT: A major solar event has been observed. Region 9077 located > just west of the centre of the solar disk produced an X5 event. > The X5 event produced the second ground level cosmic ray event > for this cycle. GLE events are associated with solar protons > from the flare, and indicate that very intense and energetic > particle fluxes have been released from the flare. In addition a halo > coronal mass ejection was observed with the flare. This region > is in an ideal geoeffective location, and remains very flare > capable. Further flare activity likely. > ----------------------------------------------------------- > 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY > Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to Minor Storm > > Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K > Australian Region 23 2333 3553 > Townsville 17 2333 3444 > Learmonth 23 2333 3553 > Canberra 20 2333 3543 > Hobart 20 2333 3453 > > Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 JUL : > Townsville 8 (Quiet) > Learmonth 2 (Quiet) > Canberra 71 (Active) > Hobart 90 (Minor storm) > > Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A > Fredericksburg 25 > Planetary 36 > > Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K > Fredericksburg 18 > Planetary 33 2235 7523 > 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST > Date Ap Conditions > 15 Jul 35 Initially unsettled, then storm levels late in UT day. > 16 Jul 150 Major to Severe storm levels > 17 Jul 45 Active > COMMENT: A sudden impulse is expected in the geomagnetic field > late on 15 July to ealry on 16 July. Major to severe storm conditions > are expected on 16 July following impulse. > ----------------------------------------------------------- > 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY > Latitude Band > Date Low Middle High > 14 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor > PCA Event : Proton/PCA Event Currently In progress began 1405UT 14 July. > PCA event observed in association with proton event. > 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST > Latitude Band > Date Low Middle High > 15 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor > 16 Jul Fair Fair-poor Poor > 17 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair > COMMENT: High latitude HF propagation extremely poor after 14UT > on 14 July due to polar cap absorption (PCA) event associated with > protons from X5 flare. Extremely degraded and depressed MUFS > expected over next few days mid to high latitudes due to aniticipated > geomagnetic storm activity. Northern hemisphere MUFs are expected > to have a stronger storm response than southern hemisphere MUFs > due to seasonal affects. > ----------------------------------------------------------- > 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY > Date T index > 14 Jul 141 > > Observed Australian Regional MUFs > Equatorial PNG Region: > Near to 15% depressed during local day. > Enhanced by 20-50% 09-15UT at Vanimo. > Northern Australian Region: > Near predicted monthly values. > Depressed 15-20% local day at Darwin. > Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: > Near predicted monthly values. > Spread F local night hours. > Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base): > Enhanced by 15% 00-14UT. Complete absorption > observed after this time on Antarctic ionograms. > > Predicted Monthly T index for July: 135 > > 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST > Date T index MUFs > 15 Jul 130 near predicted monthly values > 16 Jul 90 initially near normal then 20 to 30% below > predicted monthly values > 17 Jul 80 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values > COMMENT: Extremely degraded HF conditions are expected on 16-17 July in > association with expected intense geomagnetic storm. Local night HF comms > on 16 July is expected to be particularly poor. > > IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at fakedomain.ips > PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://ips/asfc > Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips/users/asfc/ > tel: | fax: Certainly this is an excellent forecast which will c o m e t r u e! Kindest regards, truly yours Wolfram From anonymous at fakedomain.ips Mon Jul 17 10:43:21 2000 From: anonymous at fakedomain.ips (anonymous) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2000 00:43:21 -0000 Subject: Validation of Aurora during Aurora alert Message-ID: To whom it may concern, I am a subscriber to your aurora alert memos and am currently at McMurdo Station, Antarctica. Our time zone is equal to that of New Zealand. As of about 2200 hours our time last night, on the 16th, we experienced extreme aurora activity. This lasted until approximately 0300 hours this morning and possibly longer (I went to bed). Our skies were overcast starting with your first alert at 0800 yesterday morning. They did not clear until approximately 2100 to 2200 last night so I have no validation for you for your first 4 or 5 alerts during the day yesterday. We are located within the aurora oval and rarely have extreme auroras. It was quite the show last night as I am sure it was around the rest of the world. Great service thank you. Hope I was able to help. McMurdo Station (USA), Antarctica